If you asked someone where to live in the Manatee County area 15 years ago, Parrish would likely not havemade the list.
The rural community north of Ellenton and east of Interstate 75 was once best known for its quality farmland. Its location near the edges of the Manatee River made it uniquely positioned to grow oranges, grapefruit, tobacco and maintain cattle ranches.
But in the last few years, all of that has changed. More and more new development has descended on the area, replacingpasturelandwith people.
In that time, average sales prices have increased by almost 50%. The median sales price for Parrish in January2019 was $310,000, according to numbers provided by Alex Krumm, real estate broker and past president of the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee.
Roughly three years later, the median sold price in Parrish for the month of January was almost $440,000, Krumm said. That increase isn’t necessarily a bad thing for potential buyers – in fact, it might spell opportunity and signify Parrish as an “up and coming” place.
“These are areas where you’re going to see the most appreciation in the next few years,” he said. “Demand is just a bit lower there, but both Parrish and Palmetto are every inch as gangbusters almost as Sarasota and Manatee.”
To the untrained eye, Parrish’s growth has seemed to accelerate at an unrelenting pace. But to developers, the increasing population drawn to the area – a respite for Sarasota and Bradenton residents who want a lifestyle as well as a price change – has been a long time coming.
“Growth surges. It’s part of the Florida story,” said John Neal, president of Neal Land & Neighborhoods and developer of Parrish’s North River Ranch. “From my role as a developer, it doesn’t happen too fast. In the case of North River Ranch, we’ve been working on that for years, but when it comes out of the ground, it comes out fast.”
North River Ranch opened for sales in March 2020. At the time, Neal worried it was “going to be a crisis.”
“But it turned out to be the perfect date,” he said.
About 80%of buyers at North River Ranch are families, according to Neal. As neighborhoods like Lakewood Ranch increasingly fill, land elsewhere has become more andattractive. Parrish is a location that can appeal to a diversity of buyers because of its proximity to nearby major metro areas.
North River Ranch is about 15 miles from downtown Bradenton, 30 miles from downtown St. Petersburg and downtown Sarasota and 40 miles from downtown Tampa, making all four cities a possible commute, even if it is a little longer than Sarasota’s average commute of 25 minutes.
In total, North River Ranch has approval for roughly 6,500 residences as well as commercial and hospital space, Neal said. Starting prices range from $300,000 to an average of more than $560,000 for homes from roughly 1,500 to 3,500 square feet. The current average sales price hits squarely in the middle at $415,000, based on numbers provided by Neal.
Krumm sees no signs of suburban migration to Parrish stopping.
“The employment hubs of Sarasota and Bradenton and St. Petersburg are going to continue to drive people to that area,” he said. “There is an unprecedented shortage of available housing, so builders can build as much as they want in Parrish. The builders just can’t build fast enough to keep up with it.”
There’s no question that more people will continue to seek Florida as a haven, said Jon Mast, CEO of the Manatee-Sarasota Building Industry Association. The key is “smart growth,” according to Mast.
“What’s the option? We give everybody a sign at the border and say, ‘Don’t cross.’ It’s not going to happen,” he said. “We have to figure out how to make it smart growth, which is what we want to do as developers –look at all the developments going in and make them cohesive with the environment.”
Many recent studies agree with Mast’s assessment, at least as to the point of Florida’s desirability. After all, U-Haul recently named the Sarasota-Bradenton area as the 10th top American region for growth in 2021 based on the net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks entering a region versus leaving it.
The future continues to look bright – six of Redfin’s top 10 hottest neighborhoods for 2022 are in Sarasota.
But most of the people coming to Parrish actually buck that trend, according to Neal. Roughly 60% of North River Ranch residents moved from elsewhere in Manatee or from a neighboring county. They are seeking refuge from Sarasota and Bradenton, not coming from all over the country in search of Florida’s benefits.
“I think it’s a reaction to shake the stick and say, ‘Oh, those people are coming here and filling up our roads,’” Neal said. “People are moving mostly for lifestyle factors. They need bedrooms, they’re looking for great schools and they’re looking for space – we provide all of those.”
